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Students and I are currently working in several research areas. A funded project from the Office of Education examines the effects of education on prisoner recidivism and post-release labor market opportunities. We explore the efficacy of recent Federal cutbacks on programs targeted to inmates and are beginning to assess the effects of early education programs for children in K-12 who are at risk. This project also utilizes a new census of parolees in Utah. During Spring, 2009, we will further examine the economic lives of probationers.
Another research area studies the effects of public policy controls designed to reduce traffic accidents and fatalities such as vehicle regulation, speed limits, and inspection. Most recently, Gail Blattenberger, Peter Loeb, and I examine the the effects of cell phone and their effects on fatalities in the United States.
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Selected Research papers
The Cell Phone Effect and other Determinants
of Motor Vehicle Fatalities uses three Bayesian
methods: Extreme Bounds Analysis, Bayesian Model Averaging, and Stochastic Search Variable Selection to explore models of traffic death. This paper was presented at the ASSA meeting in San Francisco, January 2009.
The Determinants of Motor Vehicle Fatalities Using Classical Specification Testing and Bayesian Sensitivity Methods demonstrates that cell phones have both life saving and life threatening effects in terms of traffic fatality rates. This paper was presented at the ASSA meeing in New Orleans, January 2008.
The Utah Census of Parolees presents an overview of data collected by the Utah State Office of Education and the Utah Department of Corrections.
Handcuffing the Cops? A Thirty-Year Perspective on Miranda's Harmful Effects on Law Enforcement was published in the Stanford Law Review. This research focuses on a dramatic decline in crime clearance rates following the Supreme Court's 1996 decision in Miranda v. Arizona. Co-authored with Paul Cassell. This is a large file.
Economic Outcomes and Mental Health, co-authored with Mary Merva, will be published early next year. It highlights the relationships between unemployment, poverty, and wage inequality on an assortment of health outcomes in a non-technical way. Another paper that explains more of the econometrics behind the results was published by The Economic Policy Institute. They awarded Mary and me a grant to research this area.
A Statistical Analysis of Project Horizon examines the effects of prison education on recidivism. Because the costs of incarceration are high relative to the costs of education, the paper suggests it makes sense to enhance education in prisons. Using a variety of statistical models, the paper demonstrates plausible recidivism reduction in the neighborhood of 20%. It was co-authored with Matt Christensen.
Wage Inequality and Criminal Activity: An Exteme Bounds Analysis for the United States was recently published in Criminology. It looks at the relationships that link crime and measures of wage inequality. This paper was also co-authored with Mary Merva who used to teach at the UofU.
Effects of Policy Related Variables on Traffice Fatalites: An Extreme Bounds Analysis was recently published in The Southern Economic Journal. This research is part of an ongoing project with Peter Loeb at Rutgers University. We typically study the effects of speed limits, selt belts, alcohol, and other public policy related variables on death rates. Our first paper together was published in The American Economic Review.
Road Closure to Mitigate Avalanche Danger, with Gail Blattenberger, was published in the International Journal of Forecasting. It takes a look at how to model low probability/high consequence events using data from Little Cottonwood Canyon. This research was funded by the National Science Foundation.
My research often uses an econometric technique called extreme bounds analysis, developed by Edward Leamer. EBA is implemented in a program I wrote that which runs under Gauss. It is quite popular and can be downloaded as a zip file free of charge by right clicking this link: MicroEBA
Research
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