RESEARCH

 

RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS - Refereed

 

          Understanding the Cell Phone Effect on Motor Vehicle Fatalites: A Bayesian View. With Gail Blattenberger and Peter D. Loeb. Applied Economics, forthcoming.

          The Cell Phone Effect on Motor Vehicle Fatality Rates: A Bayesian and Classical Econometric Evaluation.  With Peter D. Loeb and Wm. A. Clarke.  Transportation Research, Part E, (46), 2010, 1140-1147.

          Bayesian Models to Predict the Return to Prison.  With Gail Blattenberger and John Krantz. Proceedings of the Joint Statistical Meetings: Section on Bayesian Statistical Science, 2010. 

          Bayesian Model Selection: Examples Relating to Motor Vehicle Fatalities.  With Gail Blattenberger and Peter D. Loeb. Proceedings of the Joint Statistical Meetings: Section on Bayesian Statistical Science, 2009, 974-987.

          Forecasting the Probability of Failure of Thailand’s Financial Companies in the Asian Financial Crisis.  With Stephan Reynolds, et. al., Economic Development and Cultural Change, 51, October, 2002.

 

Economic Outcomes and Mental Health.  With Mary Merva.  Back to Shared Prosperity, M.E. Sharpe, 2000.

 

          Handcuffing the Cops: A Thirty Year Perspective on Miranda’s Effects.  With Paul G. Cassell. Stanford Law Review, 50(4), April 1998.

 

          Falling Clearance Rates After Miranda: Coincidence or Consequence?  With Paul G. Cassell. Stanford Law Review, 50 (4), April 1998.

 

Wage Inequality and Criminal Activity: An Extreme Bounds Analysis for the United States -- 1975-1990. With Mary Merva.  Criminology, 34(2), May, 1996, 163-182.

 

Effects of Policy Related Variables on Traffic Fatali­ties -- An Extreme Bounds Analysis Using Time Series Data.  With Peter D. Loeb.  Southern Economic Journal, v62(2), October, 1995, 359-366.

 

Road Closure to Mitigate Avalanche Danger: The Case of Little Cottonwood Canyon.  With Gail Blattenberger. International Journal of Forecasting, 11, 1995, 159-174.

 

Road Closure: Combining Data and Expert Opinion. With Gail Blattenberger.  Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics, Springer-Verlag, 1995.

 

Effects of Diminished Economic Opportunities on Social Stress: Heart Attacks, Strokes, and Crime.  With Mary Merva. EPI Reports, Economic Policy Institute: Washington, DC, June 1993.

 

The Interactive Effect of Alcohol and Altitude on Traffic Fatalities.  With Peter D. Loeb, Southern Economic Journal, v59(1), July 1992, 108-112.

 

Is there Statistical Evidence for the Blood Lead-Blood Pressure Relation­ship?  With Douglas Coate.  Journal of Health Economics, v8, September 1989, 173-184.  (This article was the featured article for editorial by Lester B. Lave, "Lead as a Public Health Problem: Is it Overestimated?", same issue, 247-250.)

 

Speeding, Coordination, and the 55 MPH Speed Limit: Comment. With Peter Loeb.  The American Economic Review, v79(4), September 1989, 916-921.

 

RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS - Under Review

         Mitigating Avlanche Danger Utilzing Bayesian Additive Regression Trees.  With Gail Blattenberger.

 

RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS – Other

 

         Steroid Profiling Among National Football League Players.  With Dylan Paulsen, Doug Rollins, John Valiante, and Jonathan P. Danaceau. Proceedings of the Cologne Workshop on Dope Analysis,  January, 2011.           

         Workplace and Community Transition for Incarcerated Youth Offenders. Utah State Office of Education and the United States Department of Education, Office of Vocational and Adult Education, January, 2010.  

The Utah Census of Parolees.  Utah State Office Education, December, 2006.

 

Examining the Determinants of the Return to Prison Utilizing the Utah Census of Parolees.  Utah State Office of Education, February, 2007.

 

The Cost of Crime, A Cost/Benefit Tool for Analyzing Utah Criminal Justice Program Effectiveness.  With Edward Byrnes and Audrey Hickert.  The Utah Commission on Criminal and Juvenile Justice, November, 2005.

 

          Findings of an Independent Panel on Allegations of Statistical Evidence for Fraud During the 2004 Venezuelan Presidential Recall Referendum.  With Henry Brady, Aviel Rubin, Jonathan Taylor, and Nicholas Beauchamp.  In Observing the Venezuela Presidential Recall Referendum, The Carter Center, February, 2005.

 

The Costs and Benefits of Programs Designed to Reduce Recidivism, Utah Commission on Criminal and Juvenile Justice, August, 2003.

 

          Economic Effects of In-Prison Education, Utah State Office of Education, November, 2000.

 

Project Horizons: A Statistical & Economic Analysis. With John Watkins & Matt Christensen. Utah State Office of Education, January, 1997.

 

Project Horizons: A Statistical Analysis.  With Matt Christensen.  Utah State Office of Education, December, 1995.

 

The Road Closure Decision in Little Cottonwood Canyon.  With Gail Blattenberger.  International Snow Science Workshop: Papers & Proceedings.  1995.

  

Micro Extreme Bounds Analysis.  The American Statis­tician, v42(4), November 1988, 274.  Reviewed by Tsunemasa Shiba, Journal of Applied Econo­metrics, v7(1), July 1992, 101-103.  Also in S. James Press, Bayesian Statistics, Wiley, 1989.

 

Bayesian Inference. In Magill's Survey of Social Science: Economics, Pasadena: Salem Press, 1991.

 

Transfers. In Magill's Survey of Social Science: Economics, Pasadena: Salem Press, 1991.

 

UNPUBLISHED RESEARCH -- Working Papers

 

Logit Estimation Under Asymmetric Loss: A Case of Avalanche Forecasting.  With Gail Blattenberger.  Proposal submitted to National Science Foundation, Decision, Risk, and Management Science Program, 1993.

 

Fragile Inferences:  Effects of Poverty, Income Inequality, and Unemployment on Criminal Activity. With Mary Merva.

 

Measuring Bayesian Prior-Posterior Agreement Using Kullback Liebler Divergence.  With David Kiefer.

 

Measurement Error and the Associations of Diastolic Blood Pressure with Coronary Heart Disease. With Douglas Coate.

 

PRESENTATIONS

          Prediciting the Return to Prison.  With Gail Blattenberger and John Krantz. American Statistical Assocation, Vancouver, August, 2010.  

          FDI Flow Volatility and ASEAN Members: An Exploratory Approach. With James Gander and Stephen Reynolds.  ACAES/AEA Meetings, Atlanta, 2010. 

          Model Choice: The Cell Phone Effect. With Gail Blattenberger and Peter Loeb. American Statistical Assocation, Washington, DC, August, 2009.

          Understanding the Cell Phone Effect on Motor Vehicle Fatalities Using Classical & Bayesian Methods.  With Gail Blattenberger and Peter Loeb.  American Economic Association Meetings, San Francisco, CA, January, 2009.

 

The Determinants of Motor Vehicle Fatalities Using Classical  Specification Testing and Bayesian Stochastic Search Variable Selection Methods.  With Peter Loeb, American Economic Association Meetings, New Orleans, LA, January, 2008.

 

Costs and Benefits of Programs Designed to Reduce Recidivism, The Utah State Legislature, September, 2004.

 

          The Economics of Prison Education, The Utah State Legislature, Annual Report, January 2000 to present.

 

          Explicit and Implicit Costs of Crime, Utah Department of Corrections, Recidivism Reduction Advisory Panel, Draper, Utah, November, 1999.

 

          Costs of Crime in Utah, The Utah State Legislature, December 1999.

 

          Recidivism & Education.  Western Social Science Association, Albuquerque, NM, 1997.

 

Time Series Analysis of Traffic Fatalities. With Peter Loeb. The Southern Economic Association,  Orlando, FL, November 1994.

 

The Road Closure Decision in Little Cottonwood Canyon.  With Gail Blattenberger.  International Snow Science Workshop,  Snowbird, UT, November 1994.

 

Road Closure: Combining Data & Expert Judgment with Seasonal Varying Weights.  With Gail Blattenberger. 14th Annual Symposium on Forecasting, Stockholm, June 1994.

 

Road Closure Decisions: Combining Data and Expert Opinion. With Gail Blattenberger.  Bayesian Statistics in Science and Technology: Case Studies, Carnegie-Mellon Univer­sity, Pittsburgh, PA, October 1993.

 

Diminished Economic Opportunity and Social Stress. With Mary Merva.  Hinckley Institute of Politics, University of Utah, December 1992.

 

Decision Making Under Asymmetric Loss. With Gail Blattenberger.  NBER-NSF Seminar on Bayesian Econo­metrics and Statistics,  Duke University, Durham, NC, November 1992.

 

Resolution of Mortgage Foreclosures. With James Vanderhoff. The Southern Economic Association, Washington, DC, November 1992.

 

Exploratory Data Analysis Using SAS Insight.  Westminster College Professional Develop­ment Seminar Series,  Salt Lake City, UT,  May 1992.

 

Avalanche Forecasting: Combining Data and Expert Opinion. With Gail Blattenberger.  Bayesian Statistics in Science and Technology: Case Studies,  Carnegie-Mellon Univer­sity, Pittsburgh, PA, September 1991.

 

Determinants of Automobile Fatalities.  The Southern Econ­omic Associa­tion,  Orlando, FL, November 1989.

 

Evidence for a Blood Lead--Blood Pressure Relationship, University of Utah Statis­tics Committee, October, 1989.

 

Bayesian Operational Subjective Methods of Econometric Model Compar­ison.  The Econometric Society, New York City, NY, December 1988.

 

The Stationarity of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory Parameters.  With James Vanderhoff.  The Southern Finance Association, San Antonio, TX, November 1988.

 

Inflationary Expectations and Money Demand.  The Southern Economic Association Meetings, Washington DC, November 1987.

 

Traffic Fatalities and Motor Vehicle Inspection.  The Eastern Economics Association Meetings,  Boston, MA, March 1988.

 

Measuring Audience Attendance.  Paper presented to The Special Events and Promotions Research Seminar,  Park City, Utah, November 1988.